06 January 2012
It's only Week 2 and we've already seen a number of big names with injuries. Stoudemire, Ginobili, Randolph, Bogut, Curry and Eric Gordon all among the big names to miss time and inflict migraines on their fantasy owners. Last week I had a terrible run with injuries to Gordon, Conley, Nelson and Delfino together with Bynum missing 4 games for his cross-checking Barea in last year's final.
Now it's important to note that this is not a regular season and the abbreviated timetable has significant implications for the value of players. Here a a few points to note:
1. The regular season of most league formats means a season of 12 or 13 weeks. If a player is out for 4 weeks he is out for a quarter of the season. He is out for 6 weeks, that's half the season. Take for example Manu who is out for 6-8 weeks from this week. This means he may be only available for the last 3 weeks of the season.
2. The abbreviated season also means more games in each week. On average teams need to play 3.8 games a week to make up their 66 games over 17 weeks (up from 3.1 games per week over 26 weeks). So if a player is out for 4 weeks that's 16 games, not 12. For a mid-level player on your roster averaging say 11.5 ppg 5 rpg 3 assists, this translates in 184 points, 80 rebounds and 32 assists. Not nice unless you have an injured player roster spot to stash him away until his return.
What does this mean? The fantasy impact of injuries is higher this season than ever. If you have an injured fantasy stud, look for someone foolish enough to take them off your hands at a discounted price. If it's a fringe roster player look to cut them earlier. Carrying multiple injured players is a risky proposition.
Remember to use you adds/drops carefully. I lost 3-6 (head to head) to fellow Fantasy Dude, Michael Alperstein, by a steal and 1 trey. Had I picked up Luke Ridnour or Mario Chalmers and dropped some under performing hack (say Jameer Nelson) it may been enough to avoid a disappointing defeat.
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